GIF Sundsvall 1-1 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Falkenbergs FF travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 2 November 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 7W 1D 2L at NP3 Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at NP3 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Superettan games this season, Falkenbergs FF have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
GIF Sundsvall are in the better shape of the two on current Superettan data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 0 for Falkenbergs FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Falkenbergs FF trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 46% versus Falkenbergs FF 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 38% | Falkenbergs FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.83 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.175 / defence 0.877 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.820 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.195. Falkenbergs FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 GIF Sundsvall games / 26 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 17%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Falkenbergs FF 5.88. The model has a clear lean to GIF Sundsvall (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 30% | Falkenbergs FF 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.83 / Falkenbergs FF 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.175 / def 0.877 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.820 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Falkenbergs FF xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 1 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 60% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 1 | Falkenbergs FF 0W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Falkenbergs FF's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.38
17%
5.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.69
0.86
Falkenbergs FF xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.86
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
3%
36.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 10.7 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 0.86 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 26 games, going 14W 6D 6L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Falkenbergs FF sit at 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (6W 6D 14L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 9W 2D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Falkenbergs FF have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.12 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF in 65%.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 14W 6D 6L in their last 26 games (1.85 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 6W 6D 14L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 2.23 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 0.69 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Falkenbergs FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Falkenbergs FF in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Falkenbergs FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Falkenbergs FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Falkenbergs FF specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
3
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF?
From 6 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Falkenbergs FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 38%, Falkenbergs FF 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GIF Sundsvall) and 62% (Falkenbergs FF).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Falkenbergs FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 69% of Falkenbergs FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 62% of Falkenbergs FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall and Falkenbergs FF finished level at 1-1 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.83 xG and Falkenbergs FF 0.86 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.18 / defence 0.88 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.82 / defence 1.41, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 60% | Draw 23% | Falkenbergs FF 17%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 38%, Falkenbergs FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.