Gefle IF 1-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Gavlevallen to face Gefle IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 17 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Gefle IF (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gefle IF at Gavlevallen this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
GIF Sundsvall have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Gefle IF against 1.20 for GIF Sundsvall. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gefle IF lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gefle IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 57% versus GIF Sundsvall 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.54 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.135 / defence 1.289 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.713 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 0.981. Data: 37 Gefle IF games / 37 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 52% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 22%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | GIF Sundsvall 4.55. Gefle IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gefle IF are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gefle IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Gefle IF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 52% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Gefle IF 1.54 / GIF Sundsvall 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.135 / def 1.289 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.713 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.312 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
0.90
GIF Sundsvall xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Gefle IF 1 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 52% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (2 meetings): Gefle IF 0W | Draws 1 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gefle IF's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.71x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.83
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.44
0.90
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
5%
21.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.1 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Gefle IF and 0.90 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 9W 10D 11L from 30 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
GIF Sundsvall, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 13L across 30 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Gefle IF against 1.17 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 7W 4D 4L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
GIF Sundsvall's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gefle IF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.23 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Current Season
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 games (1.23 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 8D 13L in their last 30 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.67 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIF Sundsvall won 3-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gefle IF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
1
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 3-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 53%, GIF Sundsvall 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Gefle IF) and 47% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gefle IF's recent matches and 40% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gefle IF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Gefle IF's recent games and 47% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gefle IF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gefle IF edge out GIF Sundsvall 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat GIF Sundsvall 1-0 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.54 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.90 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIF Sundsvall landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.14 / defence 1.29 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.71 / defence 1.04, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 52% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 22%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 50%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.23 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gefle IF win broke the near-deadlock. Gefle IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.