Gais 4-0 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Orebro SK travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Gais. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 June 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gais haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Gais's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Orebro SK — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Gais in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 44% versus Orebro SK 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 41% | Orebro SK 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.24 xG and Orebro SK 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.814 / defence 0.918 | Orebro SK attack 0.985 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.120. Data: 11 Gais games / 41 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 41% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 30%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Orebro SK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Orebro SK (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Gais 70% | Orebro SK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Orebro SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 41% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Gais 1.24 / Orebro SK 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.814 / def 0.918 | Orebro SK attack 0.985 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Gais (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Orebro SK xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Orebro SK kick off?
Gais vs Orebro SK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Orebro SK?
Gais 4 - 0 Orebro SK.
Where is Gais vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Orebro SK part of?
Gais vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 41% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gais and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Orebro SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gais and Orebro SK in?
Gais (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.81x the league average against Orebro SK's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
41%
2.41
28%
3.51
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Gais xG
Total xG
2.25
1.01
Orebro SK xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
9%
11.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.6 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gais and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Gais and 1.01 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Orebro SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gais come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 5D 17L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. Gais haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Orebro SK sit at 1.19 PPG from 32 outings (10W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gais on 1.09 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gais's home form reads 5W 3D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Orebro SK have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.09 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
Orebro SK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 10W 5D 17L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Orebro SK away?
Gais's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.12 PPG; Orebro SK away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Gais or Orebro SK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Orebro SK in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gais
1
Draws
0
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Orebro SK?
From 2 meetings on record, Gais have won 1, Orebro SK have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2023, when Orebro SK 0-0 Gais.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Orebro SK?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 62%, Orebro SK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 38% (Orebro SK).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 38%; Orebro SK in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Orebro SK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Gais's recent matches and 44% of Orebro SK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gais's recent games and 38% of Orebro SK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Orebro SK 4-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.24 xG and Orebro SK 1.01 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orebro SK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.81 / defence 0.92 against Orebro SK attack 0.98 / defence 1.07, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 41% | Draw 28% | Orebro SK 30%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 41%, Orebro SK 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Orebro SK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.09 PPG, Orebro SK 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.