Gais 3-3 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gais host GIF Sundsvall at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gais — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gais have posted 4W 1D 3L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gais 1.30 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Gais's 25% rate and GIF Sundsvall's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Gais have won 2, GIF Sundsvall 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Jun 2023, ended 3–0 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gais trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 38% versus GIF Sundsvall 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 44% | GIF Sundsvall 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.33 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.858 / defence 1.000 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.829 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.101. Data: 16 Gais games / 16 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 46% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 25%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | GIF Sundsvall 4.00. Gais hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gais as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gais 25% | GIF Sundsvall 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 46% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Gais 1.33 / GIF Sundsvall 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.858 / def 1.000 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.829 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Gais (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.91
GIF Sundsvall xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Gais vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Gais 3 - 3 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Gais vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Gais vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 46% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gais and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (3 meetings): Gais 2W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Gais and GIF Sundsvall in?
Gais (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.86x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Gais's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.37
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Gais xG
Total xG
2.24
0.91
GIF Sundsvall xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gais and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Gais and 0.91 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Gais have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 7W 5D 4L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 5W 3D 8L from 16 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gais are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against GIF Sundsvall.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gais have posted 1.62 PPG from 8 outings (4W 1D 3L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 1D 4L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gais are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.19 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 7W 5D 4L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 5W 3D 8L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Gais's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.62 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Gais or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2023, when Gais won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gais's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gais
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gais and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 6 August 2023, when Gais 3-3 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Gais and GIF Sundsvall?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Gais 25% BTTS, GIF Sundsvall 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gais) and 38% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 38% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Gais's recent matches and 38% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gais's recent games and 38% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 17, as Gais and GIF Sundsvall drew 3-3 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.33 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.91 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.83 / defence 1.14, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 46% | Draw 30% | GIF Sundsvall 25%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 44%, GIF Sundsvall 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.