Falkenbergs FF 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Falkenbergs FF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena to face Falkenbergs FF in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Falkenbergs FF have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Falkenbergs FF, 1.20 for Landskrona BoIS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Landskrona BoIS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Falkenbergs FF 0W, Landskrona BoIS 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2021, ended 1–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Falkenbergs FF half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Falkenbergs FF 59% versus Landskrona BoIS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 59% | Landskrona BoIS 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.30 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.949 / defence 1.514 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.715 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.137. Landskrona BoIS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Falkenbergs FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Falkenbergs FF games / 22 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 38% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 35%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Falkenbergs FF at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Falkenbergs FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 60% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 38% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.30 / Landskrona BoIS 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.949 / def 1.514 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.715 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Falkenbergs FF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Landskrona BoIS xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Falkenbergs FF 2 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 38% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Falkenbergs FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (1 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 0W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Falkenbergs FF's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.71x) against Falkenbergs FF's defence (1.51x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Falkenbergs FF Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.74
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.53
1.23
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
9%
10.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.23 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Falkenbergs FF come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 5D 12L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.68 PPG from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Falkenbergs FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Falkenbergs FF's home form reads 3W 3D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 0.80 points per game from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Attack vs Defence
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.36 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 4D 7L in their last 22 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Falkenbergs FF's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 1.20 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Falkenbergs FF won 0-3 on 26 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Falkenbergs FF have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Falkenbergs FF
1
Draws
1
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Falkenbergs FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS?
Falkenbergs FF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 60%, Landskrona BoIS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Falkenbergs FF) and 50% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 30% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Falkenbergs FF's games and 60% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Falkenbergs FF edge out Landskrona BoIS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Falkenbergs FF beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.30 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.23 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.95 / defence 1.51 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.71 / defence 1.31, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 38% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 35%, with Falkenbergs FF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 59%, Landskrona BoIS 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Falkenbergs FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.