Degerfors IF 1-1 IK brage – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Degerfors IF face IK brage.

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Match Analysis

Degerfors IF host IK brage at Stora Valla in Superettan (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 18 August 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Degerfors IF — last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Degerfors IF at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, IK brage stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.

IK brage away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Degerfors IF at 1.90 PPG versus IK brage's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Degerfors IF have won 1, IK brage 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2024, ended Degerfors IF 1–0 IK brage — a Degerfors IF win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

IK brage in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 67% versus IK brage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 58% | IK brage 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.41 xG and IK brage 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 1.239 / defence 1.071 | IK brage attack 0.861 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.171. IK brage bring a tight defence (rating 0.792, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Degerfors IF's projected output down. Data: built from Degerfors IF's last 18 games and IK brage's last 48.

Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 44% | Draw 27% | IK brage 28%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.27 | Draw 3.65 | IK brage 3.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Degerfors IF 80% (last 10 home games) | IK brage 40% (last 10 away games).

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