AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK meet at Tunavallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Eskilstuna have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna at Tunavallen this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — AFC Eskilstuna are significantly better at Tunavallen than their overall form suggests.
Vasteras SK FK's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AFC Eskilstuna have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Vasteras SK FK in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 52% versus Vasteras SK FK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 48% | Vasteras SK FK 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.94 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.284 / defence 1.133 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.981 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.089 / away 1.130. AFC Eskilstuna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 1.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 AFC Eskilstuna games / 24 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 24%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Vasteras SK FK 4.17. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Eskilstuna at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: AFC Eskilstuna 70% | Vasteras SK FK 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.94 / Vasteras SK FK 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.284 / def 1.133 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.981 / def 1.388 | league avg home 1.089 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Vasteras SK FK xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK?
AFC Eskilstuna 0 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 53% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 1 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AFC Eskilstuna's attack at 1.28x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.98x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 23/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
53%
1.88
22%
4.49
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
3.20
1.26
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
14%
6.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
4%
28.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.26 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Eskilstuna come into this having played 23 games, going 7W 7D 9L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-D-L. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.09 PPG from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for AFC Eskilstuna against 1.09 for Vasteras SK FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AFC Eskilstuna's home form reads 6W 4D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — AFC Eskilstuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (2W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.26 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 61%.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 2.00 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Eskilstuna won 5-2 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
2
Draws
3
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Vasteras SK FK have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 64%, Vasteras SK FK 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AFC Eskilstuna) and 36% (Vasteras SK FK).
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of AFC Eskilstuna's games and 54% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 36% of Vasteras SK FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vasteras SK FK defy the odds to beat AFC Eskilstuna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat AFC Eskilstuna 0-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 25, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.94 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.26 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Eskilstuna fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.28 / defence 1.13 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.98 / defence 1.39, drawn from 23/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 53% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 24%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 48%, Vasteras SK FK 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.22 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vasteras SK FK win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.