AFC Eskilstuna 3-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Tunavallen to face AFC Eskilstuna in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 May 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 xG and Trelleborg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.026 / defence 0.874 | Trelleborg attack 1.160 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 0.867 / away 1.021. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing AFC Eskilstuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 AFC Eskilstuna games / 7 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 39% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 32%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Trelleborg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 29 May 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 39% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 / Trelleborg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.026 / def 0.874 | Trelleborg attack 1.160 / def 1.307 | league avg home 0.867 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Trelleborg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 May 2021 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
AFC Eskilstuna 3 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 39% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AFC Eskilstuna's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.16x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
39%
2.59
29%
3.44
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.20
1.03
Trelleborg xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
10%
9.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.03 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Pre-Season
Trelleborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, Trelleborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Trelleborg 2-0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Who has won more matches between AFC Eskilstuna and Trelleborg?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Eskilstuna edge out Trelleborg 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Trelleborg 3-2 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 xG and Trelleborg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Trelleborg attack 1.16 / defence 1.31, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 39% | Draw 29% | Trelleborg 32%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.