AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Eskilstuna at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gefle IF make the trip to Tunavallen to face AFC Eskilstuna in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Monday 28 August 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
AFC Eskilstuna (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Eskilstuna's home record at Tunavallen: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gefle IF have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gefle IF away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Gefle IF arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for AFC Eskilstuna, 1 for Gefle IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2023, ended 0–2 with Gefle IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
AFC Eskilstuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Gefle IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Eskilstuna 42% versus Gefle IF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Eskilstuna 42% | Gefle IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Eskilstuna 1.31 xG and Gefle IF 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.892 / defence 0.800 | Gefle IF attack 0.800 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.171. Data: 49 AFC Eskilstuna games / 19 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 49% | Draw 31% | Gefle IF 20%. Fair-value odds: AFC Eskilstuna 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Gefle IF 5.00. AFC Eskilstuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Eskilstuna are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gefle IF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Eskilstuna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.06 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: AFC Eskilstuna 40% | Gefle IF 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tunavallen • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Eskilstuna 49% | Draw 31% | Gefle IF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG AFC Eskilstuna 1.31 / Gefle IF 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.892 / def 0.800 | Gefle IF attack 0.800 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: AFC Eskilstuna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Gefle IF xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF kick off?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 28 August 2023 at Tunavallen.
What was the final score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF?
AFC Eskilstuna 2 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Tunavallen.
What competition is AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF part of?
AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 49% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 20% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AFC Eskilstuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AFC Eskilstuna and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Gefle IF?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Eskilstuna 0W | Draws 0 | Gefle IF 1W.
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Gefle IF in?
AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Gefle IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AFC Eskilstuna's attack rating (0.89) and Gefle IF's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (0.80x) against AFC Eskilstuna's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Eskilstuna Win
49%
2.06
31%
3.20
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
AFC Eskilstuna xG
Total xG
2.06
0.75
Gefle IF xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
5%
18.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AFC Eskilstuna and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for AFC Eskilstuna and 0.75 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Eskilstuna come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 7D 7L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gefle IF sit at 1.47 PPG from 19 outings (8W 4D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for AFC Eskilstuna against 1.47 for Gefle IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
AFC Eskilstuna's home form reads 3W 4D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Gefle IF have taken 0.89 points per game from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Eskilstuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.32 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Eskilstuna and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
AFC Eskilstuna have gone 5W 7D 7L in their last 19 games (1.16 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 8W 4D 7L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Eskilstuna at home or Gefle IF away?
AFC Eskilstuna's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Eskilstuna at home: 1.44 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
AFC Eskilstuna
0
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Eskilstuna and Gefle IF?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, Gefle IF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Eskilstuna and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 Gefle IF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Eskilstuna 44%, Gefle IF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for AFC Eskilstuna and 33% for Gefle IF.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AFC Eskilstuna have failed to score in 33% of games; Gefle IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Eskilstuna home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Eskilstuna play Gefle IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent matches and 56% of Gefle IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Eskilstuna vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of AFC Eskilstuna's recent games and 33% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Eskilstuna and Gefle IF tend to score early?
AFC Eskilstuna have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AFC Eskilstuna edge out Gefle IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Gefle IF 2-1 at Tunavallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Eskilstuna 1.31 xG and Gefle IF 0.75 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.89 / defence 0.80 against Gefle IF attack 0.80 / defence 0.98, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Eskilstuna 49% | Draw 31% | Gefle IF 20%, with AFC Eskilstuna to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Eskilstuna 42%, Gefle IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Gefle IF's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Eskilstuna 1.16 PPG, Gefle IF 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.