Vasteras SK FK vs Hammarby FF – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Hitachi Energy Arena plays host to Vasteras SK FK versus Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Vasteras SK FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Vasteras SK FK's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Hitachi Energy Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Hammarby FF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Hammarby FF's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 2 for Hammarby FF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Hammarby FF winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Vasteras SK FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Hammarby FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 49% versus Hammarby FF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 63% | Hammarby FF 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.32 xG and Hammarby FF 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.866 / defence 0.957 | Hammarby FF attack 1.193 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.596 / away 1.310. Data: 19 Vasteras SK FK games / 49 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 33% | Draw 27% | Hammarby FF 40%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Hammarby FF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 50% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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