Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC host Mjallby AIF at Varberg Energi Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 3W 1D 3L from 7 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.43 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Varbergs BoIS FC have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Varberg Energi Arena, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 2W 0D 1L this season (3 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.43 — Varbergs BoIS FC are significantly better at Varberg Energi Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 4W 1D 2L from 7 outings — 1.86 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.29 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mjallby AIF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Varbergs BoIS FC at 1.43 PPG versus Mjallby AIF's 1.86. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Varbergs BoIS FC 43% versus Mjallby AIF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Varbergs BoIS FC 57% | Mjallby AIF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.18 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.084 / defence 1.123 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.808 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.112. Data: 7 Varbergs BoIS FC games / 7 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 40% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 31%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Mjallby AIF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Varbergs BoIS FC 67% | Mjallby AIF 25%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 40% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.18 / Mjallby AIF 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.084 / def 1.123 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.808 / def 1.125 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Mjallby AIF xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 16 July 2020 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Varbergs BoIS FC 1 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 40% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF in?
Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Varbergs BoIS FC's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.44
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.19
1.01
Mjallby AIF xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.01 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Varbergs BoIS FC come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 1D 3L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Varbergs BoIS FC's home form reads 2W 0D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Varbergs BoIS FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 2.33 points per game from 3 outings (2W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.86 PPG overall record — Mjallby AIF travel well.
The Goals Picture
Varbergs BoIS FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.29 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 7 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Early Season
Mjallby AIF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Varbergs BoIS FC at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Varbergs BoIS FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Mjallby AIF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
3
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF?
From 8 meetings on record, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Varbergs BoIS FC 67%, Mjallby AIF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Varbergs BoIS FC) and 33% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Varbergs BoIS FC play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent matches and 33% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's recent games and 33% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Varbergs BoIS FC and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Varbergs BoIS FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Mjallby AIF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.18 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.01 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.12 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.81 / defence 1.12, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 40% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 31%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Varbergs BoIS FC 57%, Mjallby AIF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.43. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.