Sirius 3-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sirius host Varbergs BoIS FC at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 10 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sirius 1.40 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sirius in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Varbergs BoIS FC in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 69% and Varbergs BoIS FC 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 54% | Varbergs BoIS FC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.76 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.274 / defence 1.579 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.935 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.288. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Sirius games / 13 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 35% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Varbergs BoIS FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 83% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 10 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 35% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 72% | xG Sirius 1.76 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.274 / def 1.579 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.935 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 10 August 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sirius 3 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 35% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sirius's attack at 1.27x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
35%
2.84
24%
4.20
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.66
1.90
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
5%
18.99
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Sirius and 1.90 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 4W 6D 3L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 4W 4D 5L from 13 games, 1.23 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.38 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Varbergs BoIS FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sirius are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.38 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 13 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 4W 6D 3L in their last 13 games (1.38 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Sirius's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.33 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Sirius won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 September 2023, when Sirius 7-0 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 83%, Varbergs BoIS FC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Sirius and 50% for Varbergs BoIS FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Varbergs BoIS FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Sirius's games and 33% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Sirius's matches and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 14, as Sirius and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 3-3 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.76 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.90 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Sirius beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.27 / defence 1.58 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 35% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 41%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 54%, Varbergs BoIS FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.38 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.