Sirius 1-2 Orebro SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs Orebro SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sirius host Orebro SK at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Sirius have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Orebro SK — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orebro SK's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sirius at 1.10 PPG versus Orebro SK's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sirius have won 1, Orebro SK 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2020, ended 1–2 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Orebro SK trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 64% versus Orebro SK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 60% | Orebro SK 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.83 xG and Orebro SK 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.960 / defence 0.933 | Orebro SK attack 0.833 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.089. Orebro SK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Sirius games / 42 Orebro SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 59% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 15%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Orebro SK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Orebro SK 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Orebro SK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 2 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 59% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Sirius 1.83 / Orebro SK 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.960 / def 0.933 | Orebro SK attack 0.833 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Sirius (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Orebro SK xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Orebro SK kick off?
Sirius vs Orebro SK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 2 August 2021 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Sirius 1 - 2 Orebro SK.
Where is Sirius vs Orebro SK being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Orebro SK part of?
Sirius vs Orebro SK is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 59% chance of winning, Orebro SK a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sirius and Orebro SK will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Orebro SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Orebro SK?
Record (2 meetings): Sirius 1W | Draws 0 | Orebro SK 1W.
What form are Sirius and Orebro SK in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Orebro SK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Orebro SK's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Orebro SK's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
59%
1.69
25%
3.94
15%
6.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.68
0.85
Orebro SK xG
1.69
59%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
6.51
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
2%
40.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sirius and Orebro SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Sirius and 0.85 for Orebro SK, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Orebro SK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 13W 14D 15L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orebro SK's form line: 14W 8D 20L from 42 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.26 PPG, Orebro SK on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L).
On the road, Orebro SK have gone 4W 3D 13L from 20 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Orebro SK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Orebro SK are on 1.05 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Orebro SK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Orebro SK in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 13W 14D 15L in their last 42 games (1.26 PPG), while Orebro SK have gone 14W 8D 20L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Orebro SK away?
Sirius's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.55 PPG; Orebro SK away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 August 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sirius's record when hosting Orebro SK specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Sirius
1
Draws
2
Orebro SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Orebro SK?
From 4 meetings on record, Sirius have won 1, Orebro SK have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Orebro SK last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2021, when Orebro SK 1-1 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Orebro SK?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 70%, Orebro SK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sirius and 60% for Orebro SK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Orebro SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Orebro SK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sirius's games and 40% of Orebro SK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Orebro SK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sirius's matches and 60% of Orebro SK's.
Do Sirius and Orebro SK tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Orebro SK in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Orebro SK defy the odds to beat Sirius 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Sirius 1-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.83 xG and Orebro SK 0.85 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sirius fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Orebro SK outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Orebro SK attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 59% | Draw 25% | Orebro SK 15%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Orebro SK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 60%, Orebro SK 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Orebro SK's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.26 PPG, Orebro SK 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Orebro SK win broke the near-deadlock. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.