Sirius 1-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Mjallby AIF (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sirius face Mjallby AIF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sirius and Mjallby AIF meet at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 July 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sirius's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius at Studenternas IP this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Mjallby AIF are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Mjallby AIF hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Mjallby AIF have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 64% and Mjallby AIF 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 61% | Mjallby AIF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.11 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 0.993 / defence 1.059 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.243 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.224. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sirius games / 45 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 26% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 49%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Mjallby AIF 2.04. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mjallby AIF at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 50% | Mjallby AIF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Monday 14 Jul 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 26% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Sirius 1.11 / Mjallby AIF 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 0.993 / def 1.059 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.243 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Mjallby AIF xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 14 July 2025 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Sirius 1 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Sirius vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 26% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sirius and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Record (6 meetings): Sirius 0W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 5W.
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in?
Sirius (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sirius's attack rating (0.99) and Mjallby AIF's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.24x) against Sirius's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
26%
3.81
25%
4.04
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.72
1.61
Mjallby AIF xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
5%
19.06
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Sirius and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Sirius and 1.61 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sirius come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 9D 20L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.84 PPG from 44 outings (23W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Sirius — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sirius's home form reads 8W 4D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sirius are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.64 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Mjallby AIF in 68%.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 15W 9D 20L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 12D 9L in their last 44 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.33 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Sirius
2
Draws
8
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 0, Mjallby AIF have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 4-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sirius 52%, Mjallby AIF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sirius and 62% for Mjallby AIF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sirius's games and 62% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sirius's matches and 62% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Sirius and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mjallby AIF edge out Sirius 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Sirius 1-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.11 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.61 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.24 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 26% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 49%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 61%, Mjallby AIF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.