Sirius 2-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 1 November 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kalmar FF (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Sirius's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sirius have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Kalmar FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 72% and Kalmar FF 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 64% | Kalmar FF 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.98 xG and Kalmar FF 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.217 / defence 1.359 | Kalmar FF attack 0.841 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.138 / away 1.388. Kalmar FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Sirius games / 25 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 45% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 29%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Kalmar FF 3.45. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.98 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 90% | Kalmar FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 45% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 71% | xG Sirius 1.98 / Kalmar FF 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.217 / def 1.359 | Kalmar FF attack 0.841 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.138 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Sirius (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Kalmar FF xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 November 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Sirius 2 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is Sirius vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Kalmar FF part of?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 45% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Sirius and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sirius's attacking strength (1.22x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.98. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.84x) against Sirius's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.82
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.56
1.59
Kalmar FF xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.42
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
14%
7.22
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
4%
24.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Sirius and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Sirius and 1.59 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 9W 9D 7L from 25 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 13L across 25 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sirius by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 5W 4D 3L from 12 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 3W 3D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.04 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 9W 9D 7L in their last 25 games (1.44 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 4W 8D 13L in their last 25 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Kalmar FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.58 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
5
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Sirius, 58% for Kalmar FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Sirius and 58% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Sirius's games and 58% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Sirius's matches and 58% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Sirius and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius and Kalmar FF finished level at 2-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.98 xG and Kalmar FF 1.59 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.22 / defence 1.36 against Kalmar FF attack 0.84 / defence 1.43, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 45% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 29%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 64%, Kalmar FF 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sirius arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.80. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.