Sirius 0-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sirius welcome AIK Stockholm to Studenternas IP. Kick-off is set for Thursday 29 October 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Studenternas IP, Sirius have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sirius at 1.60 PPG versus AIK Stockholm's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Sirius trading profile (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 91% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 91% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sirius 75% versus AIK Stockholm 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sirius 67% | AIK Stockholm 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.88 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.345 / defence 1.474 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.743 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.404. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. AIK Stockholm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Sirius games / 24 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 44% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 30%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | AIK Stockholm 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 100% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Oct 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 44% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG Sirius 1.88 / AIK Stockholm 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.345 / def 1.474 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.743 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Sirius (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.54
AIK Stockholm xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 29 October 2020 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Sirius 0 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 44% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sirius and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in?
Sirius (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sirius's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.74
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.42
1.54
AIK Stockholm xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
15%
6.55
Win to Nil
9%
10.63
5%
22.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Sirius and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Sirius and 1.54 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Sirius have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 9W 8D 7L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 8W 7D 9L from 24 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sirius on 1.46 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sirius have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 2W 5D 4L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sirius are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.08 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 9W 8D 7L in their last 24 games (1.46 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Sirius's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.64 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sirius or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sirius have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 May 2026, when Sirius won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sirius's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sirius
3
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 0-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sirius at 91%, AIK Stockholm at 46%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 91% for Sirius and 46% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 91% of Sirius's games and 46% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 91% of Sirius's matches and 46% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Sirius and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sirius's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 19, as Sirius and AIK Stockholm drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.88 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.54 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sirius fell 1.9 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.34 / defence 1.47 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.74 / defence 1.21, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 44% | Draw 27% | AIK Stockholm 30%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 67%, AIK Stockholm 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.46 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sirius (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.