Ostersunds FK 1-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF meet at Jämtkraft Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 September 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ostersunds FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jämtkraft Arena, Ostersunds FK have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jämtkraft Arena this season.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 0D 4L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ostersunds FK lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2020, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 42% versus Djurgardens IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 37% | Djurgardens IF 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 0.87 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.720 / defence 0.998 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.818 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.416. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Ostersunds FK games / 19 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 25% | Draw 35% | Djurgardens IF 40%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Djurgardens IF 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 40% | Djurgardens IF 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 25% | Draw 35% | Djurgardens IF 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Ostersunds FK 0.87 / Djurgardens IF 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.720 / def 0.998 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.818 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.416 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Djurgardens IF xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 September 2020 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 25% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Djurgardens IF 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.87. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.82x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
25%
3.96
35%
2.89
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.02
1.16
Djurgardens IF xG
3.96
25%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.3 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.16 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 19 games, going 6W 8D 5L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (9W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Ostersunds FK against 1.63 for Djurgardens IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.67 points per game from 9 outings (5W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ostersunds FK are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.53 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 6W 8D 5L in their last 19 games (1.37 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 1.00 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Ostersunds FK or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ostersunds FK have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 September 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Djurgardens IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 0-3 on 26 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2021, when Ostersunds FK 0-3 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 44%, Djurgardens IF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ostersunds FK) and 56% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 33%; Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 44% of games; Djurgardens IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ostersunds FK's recent matches and 33% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 56% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and Djurgardens IF finished level at 1-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 0.87 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.16 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.00 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 25% | Draw 35% | Djurgardens IF 40%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 37%, Djurgardens IF 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ostersunds FK 1.37 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.