Ostersunds FK 1-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours BK Hacken (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ostersunds FK face BK Hacken.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees BK Hacken travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 27 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK at Jämtkraft Arena this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ostersunds FK, 2 for BK Hacken and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 0–5 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ostersunds FK trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BK Hacken trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus BK Hacken 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 54% | BK Hacken 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.42 xG and BK Hacken 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.839 / defence 1.318 | BK Hacken attack 1.088 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.110. Data: 54 Ostersunds FK games / 54 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 41%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | BK Hacken 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | BK Hacken 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.42 / BK Hacken 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.839 / def 1.318 | BK Hacken attack 1.088 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.59
BK Hacken xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 27 October 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken part of?
Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 33% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken?
Record (3 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 2W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ostersunds FK's attack rating (0.84) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
33%
3.02
26%
3.80
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.02
1.59
BK Hacken xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.59 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 11W 13D 30L from 54 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 20W 20D 14L across 54 games — 1.48 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 5W 5D 17L from 27 games — 0.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 6W 13D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.15 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.57 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 11W 13D 30L in their last 54 games (0.85 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 20W 20D 14L in their last 54 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.74 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Aug 2021, when BK Hacken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken?
From 4 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 October 2021, when Ostersunds FK 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
BK Hacken see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 48%, BK Hacken 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ostersunds FK) and 44% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Ostersunds FK's games and 67% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Ostersunds FK's recent games and 44% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK and BK Hacken finished level at 1-1 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.42 xG and BK Hacken 1.59 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.84 / defence 1.32 against BK Hacken attack 1.09 / defence 1.12, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 41%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 54%, BK Hacken 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.