Mjallby AIF 2-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mjallby AIF at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kalmar FF make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Monday 27 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Mjallby AIF's favour (1.30 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 40% versus Kalmar FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 50% | Kalmar FF 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.37 xG and Kalmar FF 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.886 / defence 1.531 | Kalmar FF attack 0.731 / defence 1.394. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.214. Kalmar FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.394 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Mjallby AIF games / 10 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 37%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Kalmar FF 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Mjallby AIF 50% | Kalmar FF 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 27 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.37 / Kalmar FF 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.886 / def 1.531 | Kalmar FF attack 0.731 / def 1.394 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.214 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Kalmar FF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 27 July 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 37% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.89x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.73x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.90
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.73
1.36
Kalmar FF xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.36 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 4W 1D 5L from 10 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 7L across 10 games — 0.70 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mjallby AIF by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.20 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kalmar FF in 60%.
Last 10 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.50 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 50%, Kalmar FF 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Mjallby AIF and 50% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 50% of games; Kalmar FF in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 25% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 50% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 11, as Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.37 xG and Kalmar FF 1.36 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.89 / defence 1.53 against Kalmar FF attack 0.73 / defence 1.39, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 37% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 37%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 50%, Kalmar FF 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.