Mjallby AIF 1-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Mjallby AIF take on Kalmar FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kalmar FF make the trip to Strandvallen to face Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Monday 3 July 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Kalmar FF are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mjallby AIF lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 40% versus Kalmar FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mjallby AIF 33% | Kalmar FF 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.99 xG and Kalmar FF 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.806 / defence 0.935 | Kalmar FF attack 0.952 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.144. Data: 42 Mjallby AIF games / 42 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 34% | Kalmar FF 34%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Kalmar FF 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Mjallby AIF dominate the H2H record, yet Kalmar FF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 40% | Kalmar FF 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 3 Jul 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 34% | Kalmar FF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.99 / Kalmar FF 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.806 / def 0.935 | Kalmar FF attack 0.952 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Kalmar FF xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 July 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF 1 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 32% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
Record (5 meetings): Mjallby AIF 3W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.81x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.95x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.12
34%
2.93
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.01
1.02
Kalmar FF xG
3.12
32%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.7 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.02 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 15W 13D 14L from 42 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 12L across 42 games — 1.71 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.71 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 7W 6D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kalmar FF's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.38 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Kalmar FF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 13D 14L in their last 42 games (1.38 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Kalmar FF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.38 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 4-0 on 17 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
2
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 6, Kalmar FF have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 62%, Kalmar FF 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mjallby AIF) and 48% (Kalmar FF).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Mjallby AIF's games and 57% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 48% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 13, as Mjallby AIF and Kalmar FF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.99 xG and Kalmar FF 1.02 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.81 / defence 0.94 against Kalmar FF attack 0.95 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 34% | Kalmar FF 34%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 33%, Kalmar FF 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.38 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.