Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Mjallby AIF take on IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Mjallby AIF, 3 for IF Elfsborg and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 52% versus IF Elfsborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 46% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.08 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.741 / defence 0.850 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.941 / defence 0.900. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.313. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 Mjallby AIF games / 45 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 33% | Draw 36% | IF Elfsborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.03 | Draw 2.78 | IF Elfsborg 3.23. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 30% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 33% | Draw 36% | IF Elfsborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 46% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.08 / IF Elfsborg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.741 / def 0.850 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.941 / def 0.900 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.05
IF Elfsborg xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 33% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 31% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
Record (9 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 4 | IF Elfsborg 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.94x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
36%
2.77
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.13
1.05
IF Elfsborg xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.5 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.05 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 27W 11D 6L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 17W 9D 18L from 44 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mjallby AIF are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Elfsborg.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 2.10 PPG from 21 outings (13W 5D 3L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 7W 4D 10L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.43 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 27W 11D 6L in their last 44 games (2.09 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 17W 9D 18L in their last 44 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.10 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 43%, IF Elfsborg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Mjallby AIF) and 52% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 43% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 52% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Elfsborg defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Mjallby AIF 0-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.08 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.74 / defence 0.85 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 33% | Draw 36% | IF Elfsborg 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 46%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with IF Elfsborg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.