Mjallby AIF 0-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 18 as Mjallby AIF welcome AIK Stockholm to Strandvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 13 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. AIK Stockholm's 2.30 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Mjallby AIF's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 53% versus AIK Stockholm 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 47% | AIK Stockholm 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.81 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.662 / defence 0.962 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.174 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.073. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Mjallby AIF games / 47 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 23% | Draw 34% | AIK Stockholm 43%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 4.35 | Draw 2.94 | AIK Stockholm 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | AIK Stockholm 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 13 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 23% | Draw 34% | AIK Stockholm 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.81 / AIK Stockholm 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.662 / def 0.962 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.174 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.21
AIK Stockholm xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 13 September 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 23% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 43% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 14.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
23%
4.38
34%
2.96
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.03
1.21
AIK Stockholm xG
4.38
23%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 16.0 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.21 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 16W 14D 17L from 47 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 14L across 47 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.32 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 10W 6D 6L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AIK Stockholm's away record stands at 7W 8D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.19 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 16W 14D 17L in their last 47 games (1.32 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 21W 12D 14L in their last 47 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.64 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
5
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 50%, AIK Stockholm 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mjallby AIF) and 41% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm in 32%; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 27% of games; AIK Stockholm in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 46% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 41% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mjallby AIF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 18, as Mjallby AIF and AIK Stockholm drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.81 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.21 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mjallby AIF fell 0.8 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.66 / defence 0.96 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.17 / defence 0.86, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 23% | Draw 34% | AIK Stockholm 43%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 47%, AIK Stockholm 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.32 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.