Malmo FF 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Eleda Stadion to take on Malmo FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 October 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Malmo FF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Malmo FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Malmo FF have posted 6W 3D 1L at Eleda Stadion — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, Malmo FF have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Malmo FF in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 65% versus Mjallby AIF 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 67% | Mjallby AIF 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 1.68 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.400 / defence 1.030 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.899 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.053. Malmo FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.400 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Malmo FF games / 51 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 52% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 20%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Mjallby AIF 5.00. Malmo FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Malmo FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 80% | Mjallby AIF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Oct 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 52% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Malmo FF 1.68 / Mjallby AIF 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.400 / def 1.030 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.899 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Mjallby AIF xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 October 2021 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Malmo FF 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 52% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.40x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
52%
1.93
28%
3.52
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
2.65
0.97
Mjallby AIF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.12
4%
26.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.97 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF come into this having played 51 games, going 29W 14D 8L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Malmo FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.33 PPG from 51 outings (17W 17D 17L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Malmo FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Malmo FF's home form reads 18W 7D 1L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.04 points per game from 26 outings (6W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.27 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 29W 14D 8L in their last 51 games (1.98 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 17W 17D 17L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Malmo FF's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 2.35 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Mjallby AIF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Malmo FF
2
Draws
6
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Malmo FF 2-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 65%, Mjallby AIF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Malmo FF) and 46% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Malmo FF's games and 54% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Malmo FF's matches and 46% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Malmo FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Malmo FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Malmo FF 0-1 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 1.68 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.97 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Malmo FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.40 / defence 1.03 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.90 / defence 0.83, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 52% | Draw 28% | Mjallby AIF 20%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Mjallby AIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 67%, Mjallby AIF 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.