Malmo FF 5-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Malmo FF at 87% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Malmo FF host Degerfors IF at Eleda Stadion in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 June 2023 at 18:10 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Malmo FF stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Malmo FF at Eleda Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Malmo FF are significantly better at Eleda Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Degerfors IF — All Games: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Malmo FF 1.20 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Malmo FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Degerfors IF in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Malmo FF have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Degerfors IF have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Malmo FF and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Malmo FF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Malmo FF 57% versus Degerfors IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Malmo FF 57% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Malmo FF 3.73 xG and Degerfors IF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Malmo FF attack 1.423 / defence 0.984 | Degerfors IF attack 0.796 / defence 1.718. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.142. Malmo FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — their λ of 3.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.718 — this is suppressing Malmo FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Malmo FF games / 41 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Malmo FF 87% | Draw 9% | Degerfors IF 4%. Fair-value odds: Malmo FF 1.15 | Draw 11.11 | Degerfors IF 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Malmo FF (87%) — a 83pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 4.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Malmo FF are the pick at 87% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 4.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 84% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Malmo FF 60% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Eleda Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 5 Jun 2023, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Malmo FF 87% | Draw 9% | Degerfors IF 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 58% | xG Malmo FF 3.73 / Degerfors IF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Malmo FF attack 1.423 / def 0.984 | Degerfors IF attack 0.796 / def 1.718 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Malmo FF (87%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.73
Malmo FF xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Degerfors IF xG
58%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
68%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 5 June 2023 at Eleda Stadion.
What was the final score in Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Malmo FF 5 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Eleda Stadion.
What competition is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Malmo FF a 87% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 4% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw — making Malmo FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Malmo FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (4 meetings): Malmo FF 3W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF in?
Malmo FF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Malmo FF's attack at 1.42x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.72x — combine the two and it projects 3.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Malmo FF's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-0 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 4-0 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
87%
1.16
9%
10.94
4%
23.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
7.9%
Home win
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.73
Malmo FF xG
Total xG
4.63
0.90
Degerfors IF xG
1.16
87%
Home win
10.94
9%
Draw
23.09
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
68%
Over 3.5
1.47
32%
Under 3.5
3.12
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
2%
41.80
Win to Nil
35%
2.83
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 3.73 expected goals for Malmo FF and 0.90 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 4.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 87%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Malmo FF's recent record stands at 30W 15D 15L from 60 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 29L across 60 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Malmo FF by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Malmo FF have managed 16W 9D 5L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 5W 7D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Malmo FF are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.10 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Malmo FF
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Malmo FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Malmo FF have gone 30W 15D 15L in their last 60 games (1.75 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Malmo FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Malmo FF's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Malmo FF at home: 1.90 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Malmo FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Malmo FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2021, when Malmo FF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Malmo FF's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Malmo FF
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Malmo FF have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Malmo FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Malmo FF and Degerfors IF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Malmo FF 60%, Degerfors IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Malmo FF) and 50% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Malmo FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Malmo FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Malmo FF play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Malmo FF's games and 53% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Malmo FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Malmo FF's matches and 50% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Malmo FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Malmo FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Malmo FF run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Degerfors IF 5-0 at Eleda Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Malmo FF 3.73 xG and Degerfors IF 0.90 xG, a combined 4.63. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Malmo FF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Degerfors IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Malmo FF attack 1.42 / defence 0.98 against Degerfors IF attack 0.80 / defence 1.72, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Malmo FF 87% | Draw 9% | Degerfors IF 4%, with Malmo FF to win its most likely call at 87%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 68% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Malmo FF 57%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Malmo FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.