Kalmar FF 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Sirius in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Thursday 23 July 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 0.67 PPG across 9 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 1W 0D 3L from 4 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sirius (all games): 4W 3D 2L across 9 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.67 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 1.22. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Sirius are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.67 vs 0.67). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Sirius — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 56% versus Sirius 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kalmar FF 78% | Sirius 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Kalmar FF surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Sirius have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.09 xG and Sirius 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.062 / defence 1.391 | Sirius attack 0.747 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.102 / away 1.075. Data: 9 Kalmar FF games / 9 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 29% | Sirius 36%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Sirius 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 75% | Sirius 25%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 23 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 29% | Sirius 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Kalmar FF 1.09 / Sirius 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.062 / def 1.391 | Sirius attack 0.747 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.102 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Sirius (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Sirius xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Sirius kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 23 July 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Kalmar FF 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Sirius part of?
Kalmar FF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 35% chance of winning, Sirius a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Kalmar FF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-0D-7L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.22 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.75x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
35%
2.88
29%
3.44
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.21
1.12
Sirius xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.12 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 2W 0D 7L from 9 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 2L across 9 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sirius by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 7L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Sirius have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Sirius away?
Sirius's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.75 PPG; Sirius away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kalmar FF
5
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 1, Sirius have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sirius tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 75%, Sirius 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Kalmar FF and 25% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius in 50%; Sirius in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 25% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Kalmar FF's matches and 25% of Sirius's.
Do Kalmar FF and Sirius tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sirius in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.09 xG and Sirius 1.12 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.06 / defence 1.39 against Sirius attack 0.75 / defence 0.93, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 35% | Draw 29% | Sirius 36%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 78%, Sirius 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sirius arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.