Kalmar FF 0-0 Ostersunds FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ostersunds FK at 35%, yet in-form Kalmar FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Guldfågeln Arena plays host to Kalmar FF versus Ostersunds FK in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 12 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kalmar FF at Guldfågeln Arena this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Guldfågeln Arena this season.
Ostersunds FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Ostersunds FK have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Kalmar FF's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Ostersunds FK's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Kalmar FF 0W, Ostersunds FK 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2020, ended 0–2 with Ostersunds FK winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Ostersunds FK — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 50% versus Ostersunds FK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 50% | Ostersunds FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.21 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.872 / defence 1.070 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.964 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.211. Data: 30 Kalmar FF games / 30 Ostersunds FK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 33% | Ostersunds FK 35%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Ostersunds FK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ostersunds FK are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Kalmar FF (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ostersunds FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kalmar FF 30% | Ostersunds FK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Monday 12 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 33% | Ostersunds FK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG Kalmar FF 1.21 / Ostersunds FK 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.872 / def 1.070 | Ostersunds FK attack 0.964 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Ostersunds FK (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Ostersunds FK xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 12 April 2021 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Kalmar FF 0 - 0 Ostersunds FK.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK part of?
Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 33% chance of winning, Ostersunds FK a 35% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ostersunds FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK?
Record (2 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 0 | Ostersunds FK 2W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Ostersunds FK (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Ostersunds FK's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Ostersunds FK's attack (0.96x) against Kalmar FF's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ostersunds FK Win
33%
3.05
33%
3.07
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.46
1.25
Ostersunds FK xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
9%
10.64
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.25 for Ostersunds FK, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kalmar FF's recent record stands at 7W 10D 13L from 30 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Ostersunds FK, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 13L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for Kalmar FF against 1.10 for Ostersunds FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Kalmar FF have managed 1W 6D 8L from 15 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.03 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Ostersunds FK's away record stands at 6W 5D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.10 PPG overall record — Ostersunds FK travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ostersunds FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kalmar FF are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Ostersunds FK are on 0.90 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Ostersunds FK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 7W 10D 13L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Ostersunds FK away?
Ostersunds FK's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 0.60 PPG; Ostersunds FK away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Ostersunds FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Ostersunds FK in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kalmar FF have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
2
Ostersunds FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK?
From 6 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Ostersunds FK have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when Ostersunds FK 0-0 Kalmar FF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, Ostersunds FK 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Kalmar FF) and 47% (Ostersunds FK).
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK in 40%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 47% of games; Ostersunds FK in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Ostersunds FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Ostersunds FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 40% of Ostersunds FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Ostersunds FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 47% of Ostersunds FK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ostersunds FK in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Kalmar FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF and Ostersunds FK finished level at 0-0 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.21 xG and Ostersunds FK 1.25 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Ostersunds FK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Ostersunds FK attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 33% | Draw 33% | Ostersunds FK 35%, with Ostersunds FK to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 50%, Ostersunds FK 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.03 PPG, Ostersunds FK 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.