Kalmar FF 1-3 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees IF Brommapojkarna travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar FF have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Guldfågeln Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.88 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.025 / defence 0.920 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.920 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.088. Data: 37 Kalmar FF games / 7 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 59% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 17%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | IF Brommapojkarna 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Kalmar FF (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 59% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Kalmar FF 1.88 / IF Brommapojkarna 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.025 / def 0.920 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.920 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
0.92
IF Brommapojkarna xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Kalmar FF 1 - 3 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 59% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Kalmar FF home split: 2.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | CS 7.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Kalmar FF's attack at 1.02x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.15
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.79
0.92
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
38.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 0.92 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Kalmar FF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
0
Draws
3
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 5 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IF Brommapojkarna cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Kalmar FF 1-3 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.88 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 0.92 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.02 / defence 0.92 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.92 / defence 1.09, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 59% | Draw 24% | IF Brommapojkarna 17%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a IF Brommapojkarna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.