Kalmar FF 1-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Hammarby FF travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Thursday 16 July 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — All Games: 2W 0D 5L from 7 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.86 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.29 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kalmar FF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (1.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 2W 2D 3L from 7 outings — 1.14 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.86 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 7 outings (43%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hammarby FF have played only a handful of Allsvenskan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.14 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kalmar FF 0.86 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.14 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Kalmar FF register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Hammarby FF in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 43% versus Hammarby FF 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 71% | Hammarby FF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.86 xG and Hammarby FF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 1.246 / defence 1.299 | Hammarby FF attack 0.835 / defence 1.542. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.112. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.542 — this is suppressing Kalmar FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Kalmar FF games / 7 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 53% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 25%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Hammarby FF 4.00. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kalmar FF are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kalmar FF 67% | Hammarby FF 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 53% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Kalmar FF 1.86 / Hammarby FF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 1.246 / def 1.299 | Hammarby FF attack 0.835 / def 1.542 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Hammarby FF xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 16 July 2020 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Kalmar FF 1 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 53% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 2W-0D-5L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.29 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 2W-2D-3L in 7 | 1.14 PPG | GF 0.86 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (1.25) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.41
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
3.07
1.21
Hammarby FF xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
16%
6.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
4%
25.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.5 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.21 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kalmar FF come into this having played 7 games, going 2W 0D 5L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Kalmar FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.14 PPG from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hammarby FF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 0.86 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kalmar FF's home form reads 1W 0D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kalmar FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 0.86 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 29%.
Defensively: Hammarby FF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Early Season
Hammarby FF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 2W 0D 5L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 2W 2D 3L in their last 7 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.00 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hammarby FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Hammarby FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kalmar FF at 67%, Hammarby FF at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Kalmar FF and 100% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kalmar FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hammarby FF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Kalmar FF's games and 67% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Kalmar FF's matches and 100% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hammarby FF defy the odds to beat Kalmar FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Kalmar FF 1-2 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.86 xG and Hammarby FF 1.21 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Kalmar FF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 1.25 / defence 1.30 against Hammarby FF attack 0.83 / defence 1.54, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 53% | Draw 23% | Hammarby FF 25%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Hammarby FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 71%, Hammarby FF 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 0.86 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.