IFK Varnamo 3-1 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC meet at Finnvedsvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Varnamo (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Finnvedsvallen this season.
Varbergs BoIS FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward IFK Varnamo. A 0.50 PPG lead over Varbergs BoIS FC (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — IFK Varnamo register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for IFK Varnamo, 1 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 52% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 47% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.20 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.656 / defence 0.956 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.085. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.656 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 IFK Varnamo games / 36 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Varnamo at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: IFK Varnamo 80% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.20 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.656 / def 0.956 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.008 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
IFK Varnamo 3 - 1 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 39% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.66x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.01x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.37
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.25
1.04
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.0 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.04 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 27W 15D 18L from 60 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Varbergs BoIS FC, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 25L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.22 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 16W 8D 6L from 30 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record stands at 9W 6D 15L across 30 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 27W 15D 18L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.87 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.10 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 3-0 on 3 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
0
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 3-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 53%, Varbergs BoIS FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Varnamo) and 67% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of IFK Varnamo's games and 70% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Varbergs BoIS FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Varbergs BoIS FC 3-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.20 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.04 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.66 / defence 0.96 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 39% | Draw 30% | Varbergs BoIS FC 31%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 47%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.60 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.