IFK Varnamo 0-0 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Sirius travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 April 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Sirius — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.31 xG and Sirius 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.864 / defence 1.150 | Sirius attack 1.013 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.346. Data: 1 IFK Varnamo games / 31 Sirius games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 32% | Draw 25% | Sirius 43%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Sirius 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 11 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 32% | Draw 25% | Sirius 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.31 / Sirius 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.864 / def 1.150 | Sirius attack 1.013 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Sirius (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Sirius xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Sirius kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 11 April 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 0 Sirius.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 32% chance of winning, Sirius a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Sirius in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Sirius away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.86) and Sirius's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
32%
3.12
25%
4.06
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.88
1.57
Sirius xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
7%
14.98
12%
8.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.57 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
Sirius
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sirius have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
5
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Sirius have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at IFK Varnamo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 2, as IFK Varnamo and Sirius drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.31 xG and Sirius 1.57 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Sirius landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Sirius attack 1.01 / defence 1.17, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 32% | Draw 25% | Sirius 43%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.