IFK Varnamo 3-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Varnamo host IFK Goteborg at Finnvedsvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Finnvedsvallen this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Finnvedsvallen this season.
IFK Goteborg — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Varnamo at 1.90 PPG versus IFK Goteborg's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, IFK Varnamo have won 1, IFK Goteborg 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 1–0 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 50% versus IFK Goteborg 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 48% | IFK Goteborg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.94 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.708 / defence 0.833 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.876 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.208. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 56 IFK Varnamo games / 56 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 32%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.86 | Draw 3.03 | IFK Goteborg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.82 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 40% | IFK Goteborg 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.94 / IFK Goteborg 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.708 / def 0.833 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.876 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.88
IFK Goteborg xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 October 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
IFK Varnamo 3 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg part of?
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 35% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 2W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Varnamo's attack at 0.71x the league average against IFK Goteborg's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
35%
2.84
33%
3.06
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.82
0.88
IFK Goteborg xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 14.3 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.88 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 21W 12D 23L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg's form line: 21W 12D 23L from 56 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.34 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L).
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 9W 6D 13L from 28 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.25 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 12D 23L in their last 56 games (1.34 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 12D 23L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.32 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.18 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when IFK Goteborg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
4
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when IFK Goteborg 1-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 46%, IFK Goteborg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (IFK Varnamo) and 50% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 32% of games; IFK Goteborg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 43% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 50% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat IFK Goteborg 3-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.94 xG and IFK Goteborg 0.88 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.71 / defence 0.83 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 33% | IFK Goteborg 32%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, IFK Goteborg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.34 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.