IFK Norrkoping 2-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 6 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at PlatinumCars Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for IFK Norrkoping, 1.10 for Degerfors IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IFK Norrkoping lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 56% versus Degerfors IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 52% | Degerfors IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.50 xG and Degerfors IF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.817 / defence 1.131 | Degerfors IF attack 0.792 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.146. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing IFK Norrkoping's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 IFK Norrkoping games / 46 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 48% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 26%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 3.85. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Norrkoping 50% | Degerfors IF 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 48% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.50 / Degerfors IF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.817 / def 1.131 | Degerfors IF attack 0.792 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Degerfors IF xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Norrkoping 2 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 48% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 0W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Norrkoping's attack rating (0.82) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.79x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.81
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.53
1.03
Degerfors IF xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
6%
17.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.03 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping's recent record stands at 17W 9D 20L from 46 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 27L across 46 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 0.98 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Norrkoping have managed 10W 6D 7L from 23 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 4W 3D 16L across 23 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.02 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 17W 9D 20L in their last 46 games (1.30 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 13W 6D 27L in their last 46 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Degerfors IF away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.57 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 4-1 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
IFK Norrkoping
3
Draws
2
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2025, when Degerfors IF 0-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 61%, Degerfors IF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (IFK Norrkoping) and 48% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 44% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 48% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Degerfors IF 2-0 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.50 xG and Degerfors IF 1.03 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Degerfors IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against Degerfors IF attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 48% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 26%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 52%, Degerfors IF 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.30 PPG, Degerfors IF 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Norrkoping win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.