IFK Goteborg 0-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 42%, yet in-form IFK Varnamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 1 as IFK Goteborg welcome IFK Varnamo to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. IFK Varnamo's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of IFK Goteborg's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, IFK Goteborg have won 2, IFK Varnamo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 4–1 with IFK Goteborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 47% versus IFK Varnamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 50% | IFK Varnamo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.49 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.951 / defence 1.033 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.984 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.238. Data: 30 IFK Goteborg games / 30 IFK Varnamo games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 42% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | IFK Varnamo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 40% | IFK Varnamo 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 42% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.49 / IFK Varnamo 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.951 / def 1.033 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.984 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.26
IFK Varnamo xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 42% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 0W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.67
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.75
1.26
IFK Varnamo xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.26 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 25W 11D 24L from 60 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 18L across 60 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.43 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 13W 6D 11L from 30 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 25W 11D 24L in their last 60 games (1.43 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 27W 15D 18L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: IFK Goteborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when IFK Goteborg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when IFK Goteborg 1-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 47%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (IFK Goteborg) and 57% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 57% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Varnamo defy the odds to beat IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.49 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.26 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 42% | Draw 27% | IFK Varnamo 31%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 50%, IFK Varnamo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.43 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.