IFK Goteborg 1-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Monday 3 October 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 4W 3D 3L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IF Elfsborg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for IFK Goteborg, 2 for IF Elfsborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–3 with IF Elfsborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 43% versus IF Elfsborg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | IF Elfsborg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.18 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.897 / defence 0.982 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.979 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.137. Data: 53 IFK Goteborg games / 53 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 36% | Draw 33% | IF Elfsborg 31%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | IF Elfsborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Goteborg at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 50% | IF Elfsborg 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 3 Oct 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 36% | Draw 33% | IF Elfsborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.18 / IF Elfsborg 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.897 / def 0.982 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.979 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.09
IF Elfsborg xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 3 October 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 36% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
Record (2 meetings): IFK Goteborg 0W | Draws 0 | IF Elfsborg 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.98x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
36%
2.81
33%
3.02
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.28
1.09
IF Elfsborg xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
10%
10.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.09 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 22W 11D 20L from 53 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 15L across 53 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.66 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 11W 6D 9L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 10W 6D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.75 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 11D 20L in their last 53 games (1.45 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 13D 15L in their last 53 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.50 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.38 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
IF Elfsborg have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
8
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, IF Elfsborg have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 46%, IF Elfsborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (IFK Goteborg) and 46% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IF Elfsborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IFK Goteborg 1-3 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.18 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.09 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.98 / defence 0.87, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 36% | Draw 33% | IF Elfsborg 31%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, IF Elfsborg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.45 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.