IFK Goteborg 2-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Goteborg at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 10 as IFK Goteborg welcome GIF Sundsvall to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
IFK Goteborg's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gamla Ullevi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 2.27 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.968 / defence 1.078 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.804 / defence 1.602. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.066. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.602 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 IFK Goteborg games / 9 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 68% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 14%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | GIF Sundsvall 7.14. The model has a clear lean to IFK Goteborg (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 68% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 54% | xG IFK Goteborg 2.27 / GIF Sundsvall 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.968 / def 1.078 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.804 / def 1.602 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
GIF Sundsvall xG
54%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
IFK Goteborg 2 - 0 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 68% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both IFK Goteborg and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and GIF Sundsvall in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. IFK Goteborg home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.97x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.60x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
68%
1.48
18%
5.43
14%
7.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
3.19
0.92
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
7.20
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
10%
9.68
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
1%
69.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 0.92 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
0
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2022, when GIF Sundsvall 3-2 IFK Goteborg.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IFK Goteborg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat GIF Sundsvall 2-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 2.27 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.92 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.80 / defence 1.60, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 68% | Draw 18% | GIF Sundsvall 14%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.