IF Elfsborg 1-0 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vasteras SK FK travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan (matchday 29). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, IF Elfsborg stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Vasteras SK FK — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Vasteras SK FK away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, IF Elfsborg have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for IF Elfsborg, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended IF Elfsborg 1–0 Vasteras SK FK — a IF Elfsborg win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 53% versus Vasteras SK FK 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 64% | Vasteras SK FK 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.05 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.202 / defence 1.018 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.718 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.253. Vasteras SK FK's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IF Elfsborg's projected output up. Vasteras SK FK's attack rating of 0.718 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from IF Elfsborg's last 58 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 28.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 63% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 15%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.58 | Draw 4.64 | Vasteras SK FK 6.53. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (63%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IF Elfsborg's last 10 home games and Vasteras SK FK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Elfsborg 70% (last 10 home games) | Vasteras SK FK 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 29 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 63% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG IF Elfsborg 2.05 / Vasteras SK FK 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.202 / def 1.018 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.718 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Vasteras SK FK xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK FAQs
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 0 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 29) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 63% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.20x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IF Elfsborg's last 58 games and Vasteras SK FK's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
63%
1.58
22%
4.64
15%
6.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.97
0.92
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
6.53
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
13%
7.80
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
50.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.92 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 32W 9D 17L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 24W 11D 23L from 58 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.81 PPG, Vasteras SK FK on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 2.07 PPG from their last 29 home games (18W 6D 5L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 11W 4D 14L from their last 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.26 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
IF Elfsborg (Home) vs Vasteras SK FK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Current Season
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK Form FAQs
What form are IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 32W 9D 17L in their last 58 games (1.81 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 11D 23L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.07 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.28 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Aug 2026, when IF Elfsborg won IF Elfsborg 3-0 Vasteras SK FK.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Vasteras SK FK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
0
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Elfsborg have won 3, Vasteras SK FK have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: IF Elfsborg 3-0 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 55%, Vasteras SK FK 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for IF Elfsborg and 55% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Elfsborg vs Vasteras SK FK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 48% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 55% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Vasteras SK FK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 62% of Vasteras SK FK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Elfsborg edge out Vasteras SK FK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Vasteras SK FK 1-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.05 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.92 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. IF Elfsborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.72 / defence 1.21, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 63% | Draw 22% | Vasteras SK FK 15%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 64%, Vasteras SK FK 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.81 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.