IF Elfsborg 3-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Sirius meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Monday 3 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IF Elfsborg (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 2W 3D 0L at Borås Arena — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sirius have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sirius have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Sirius — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 46% versus Sirius 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 46% | Sirius 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.11 xG and Sirius 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.073 / defence 1.145 | Sirius attack 0.737 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.209. Data: 11 IF Elfsborg games / 11 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 36% | Draw 32% | Sirius 32%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Sirius 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 60% | Sirius 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 36% | Draw 32% | Sirius 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.11 / Sirius 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.073 / def 1.145 | Sirius attack 0.737 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sirius xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 August 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 3 Sirius.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 36% chance of winning, Sirius a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Sirius (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.07) and Sirius's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (0.74x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
36%
2.77
32%
3.09
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.13
1.02
Sirius xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
13%
7.68
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.02 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 5W 5D 1L from 11 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 3L across 11 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.45 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 2W 2D 1L across 5 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.55 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 64%.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Sirius in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 5D 1L in their last 11 games (1.82 PPG), while Sirius have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Sirius away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.80 PPG; Sirius away: 1.60 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sirius in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sirius have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 4-0 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 0D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IF Elfsborg
0
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 6, Sirius have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Sirius?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sirius tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 60%, Sirius 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for IF Elfsborg and 20% for Sirius.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sirius in 40%; Sirius in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 40% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 20% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Sirius tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sirius in 20% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and Sirius share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and Sirius finished level at 3-3 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.11 xG and Sirius 1.02 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.07 / defence 1.15 against Sirius attack 0.74 / defence 0.94, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 36% | Draw 32% | Sirius 32%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 46%, Sirius 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.82 PPG, Sirius 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.