IF Elfsborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 40%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.20. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mjallby AIF are 2.40 PPG clear of IF Elfsborg in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.80 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: IF Elfsborg 3W, Mjallby AIF 2W, 3D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 55% versus Mjallby AIF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 65% | Mjallby AIF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.40 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.033 / defence 0.757 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.257 / defence 0.858. League average goals — home 1.582 / away 1.336. Mjallby AIF have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 IF Elfsborg games / 38 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 40% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 34%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Mjallby AIF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 60% | Mjallby AIF 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 21 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 40% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.40 / Mjallby AIF 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.033 / def 0.757 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.257 / def 0.858 | league avg home 1.582 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Mjallby AIF xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 21 May 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 40% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
Record (8 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 3 | Mjallby AIF 2W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.26x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.84
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.27
Mjallby AIF xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.27 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 60 games, going 25W 10D 25L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 2.08 PPG from 60 outings (37W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Mjallby AIF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 16W 6D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.87 points per game from 30 outings (17W 5D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.68 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 10D 25L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 37W 14D 9L in their last 60 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.80 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.87 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
4
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 63%, Mjallby AIF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for IF Elfsborg and 57% for Mjallby AIF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of IF Elfsborg's games and 53% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 57% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 15, as IF Elfsborg and Mjallby AIF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.40 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.76 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.26 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 40% | Draw 26% | Mjallby AIF 34%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 65%, Mjallby AIF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Mjallby AIF arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.