IF Elfsborg 1-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IFK Norrkoping make the trip to Borås Arena to face IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 14 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for IF Elfsborg, 0.90 for IFK Norrkoping — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IF Elfsborg lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
IFK Norrkoping goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 49% versus IFK Norrkoping 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | IFK Norrkoping 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.14 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.427 / defence 1.198 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.842 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.138. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.427 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 IF Elfsborg games / 47 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 59% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 19%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | IFK Norrkoping 5.26. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | IFK Norrkoping 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 59% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.14 / IFK Norrkoping 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.427 / def 1.198 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.842 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 59% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (3 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 1 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.43x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.84x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.66
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.29
1.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
12%
8.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
2%
44.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.15 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 22W 11D 14L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 18W 9D 20L from 47 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.34 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (12W 6D 5L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 7W 3D 13L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.34 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 11D 14L in their last 47 games (1.64 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 18W 9D 20L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.83 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.04 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
3
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when IFK Norrkoping 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 52%, IFK Norrkoping 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (IF Elfsborg) and 52% (IFK Norrkoping). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 13% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; IFK Norrkoping in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play IFK Norrkoping?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 52% of IFK Norrkoping's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 52% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and IFK Norrkoping finished level at 1-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.14 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.15 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.43 / defence 1.20 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 59% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 19%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, IFK Norrkoping 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.64 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.