IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK meet at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Monday 30 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IF Brommapojkarna's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Grimsta IP this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for IF Brommapojkarna, 0.80 for Vasteras SK FK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 0 for Vasteras SK FK and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 59% versus Vasteras SK FK 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 65% | Vasteras SK FK 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.954 / defence 1.298 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.672 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.237. Data: 54 IF Brommapojkarna games / 24 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 49% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 26%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Vasteras SK FK 3.85. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Vasteras SK FK 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Monday 30 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 49% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 / Vasteras SK FK 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.954 / def 1.298 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.672 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Vasteras SK FK xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 30 September 2024 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
IF Brommapojkarna 2 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 49% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK?
Record (3 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 2W | Draws 1 | Vasteras SK FK 0W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from IF Brommapojkarna's attack rating (0.95) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.67x) against IF Brommapojkarna's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.92
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.65
1.08
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.08 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Brommapojkarna come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 13D 24L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasteras SK FK sit at 1.52 PPG from 54 outings (24W 10D 20L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.52 for Vasteras SK FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
IF Brommapojkarna's home form reads 7W 8D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Vasteras SK FK have taken 1.42 points per game from 26 outings (11W 4D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.28 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 13D 24L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.12 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.42 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK?
From 5 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 58%, Vasteras SK FK 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 50% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 31%; IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 35% of games; Vasteras SK FK in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Vasteras SK FK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 42% of Vasteras SK FK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 50% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out Vasteras SK FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.08 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.95 / defence 1.30 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.67 / defence 1.08, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 49% | Draw 26% | Vasteras SK FK 26%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 65%, Vasteras SK FK 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.19 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Brommapojkarna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.