IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna welcome Djurgardens IF to Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — IF Brommapojkarna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Djurgardens IF — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Djurgardens IF have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Djurgardens IF's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 1 for Djurgardens IF and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended IF Brommapojkarna 1–3 Djurgardens IF — a Djurgardens IF win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Djurgardens IF trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 63% versus Djurgardens IF 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 67% | Djurgardens IF 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.822 / defence 1.340 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.890 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.198. IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating of 1.340 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Djurgardens IF's projected output up. Data: built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 27 games and Djurgardens IF's last 57.
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 26% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 47%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.79 | Draw 3.75 | Djurgardens IF 2.13. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: IF Brommapojkarna 60% (last 10 home games) | Djurgardens IF 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 28 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 26% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 / Djurgardens IF 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.822 / def 1.340 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.890 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Djurgardens IF xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF FAQs
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 2 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 28) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 26% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.82x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 27 games and Djurgardens IF's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
26%
3.79
27%
3.75
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.43
1.43
Djurgardens IF xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
6%
15.84
17%
5.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.43 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 27W 8D 22L from 57 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 31W 11D 15L across 57 games — 1.82 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.56 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 16W 4D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 10W 8D 10L across their last 28 away games, a 1.36 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.60 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna (Home) vs Djurgardens IF (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF Form FAQs
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 27W 8D 22L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 11D 15L in their last 57 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.86 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.36 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 16 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 May 2024, when Djurgardens IF won IF Brommapojkarna 0-5 Djurgardens IF.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
0
Draws
7
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Djurgardens IF have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 October 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 0-2 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 64%, Djurgardens IF 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 36% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 39%; Djurgardens IF in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgardens IF Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 39% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent games and 36% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Djurgardens IF matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 57% of Djurgardens IF's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out IF Brommapojkarna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.43 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.89 / defence 0.83, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 26% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 47%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 67%, Djurgardens IF 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.56 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.