IF Brommapojkarna 1-3 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna host Degerfors IF at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Grimsta IP, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 3W 0D 7L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Brommapojkarna 0.80 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 2 for Degerfors IF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2025, ended 3–0 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 56% versus Degerfors IF 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 54% | Degerfors IF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG and Degerfors IF 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.980 / defence 1.243 | Degerfors IF attack 1.004 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.408. Data: 59 IF Brommapojkarna games / 29 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 39%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 50% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 / Degerfors IF 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.980 / def 1.243 | Degerfors IF attack 1.004 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.452 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Degerfors IF xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 3 Degerfors IF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 35% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 1W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 2W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.98x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
35%
2.82
26%
3.89
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.43
1.76
Degerfors IF xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.21
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
6%
16.32
7%
13.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.76 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 17W 14D 28L from 59 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 21L across 59 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.10 PPG, Degerfors IF on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 8W 5D 16L from 29 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 12W 8D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.36 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 14D 28L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 22W 16D 21L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Degerfors IF away?
Degerfors IF's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.00 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jun 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF?
From 6 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 2-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 52%, Degerfors IF 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 59% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 66% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 59% of Degerfors IF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 1-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.68 xG and Degerfors IF 1.76 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.98 / defence 1.24 against Degerfors IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 35% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 39%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 54%, Degerfors IF 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.10 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.