Hammarby FF 2-1 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasteras SK FK make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Hammarby FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Monday 29 April 2024 at 18:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vasteras SK FK's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Vasteras SK FK are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Hammarby FF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vasteras SK FK — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 53% and Vasteras SK FK 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 50% | Vasteras SK FK 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.71 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.277 / defence 0.842 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.668 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.348. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Hammarby FF games / 5 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 60% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 16%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Vasteras SK FK 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Hammarby FF 90% | Vasteras SK FK 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 60% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Hammarby FF 1.71 / Vasteras SK FK 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.277 / def 0.842 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.668 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Vasteras SK FK xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Hammarby FF 2 - 1 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 60% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.28) and Vasteras SK FK's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (0.67x) against Hammarby FF's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.25
16%
6.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.47
0.76
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
6.16
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
3%
34.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.76 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 11W 11D 8L from 30 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Vasteras SK FK, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 10L across 30 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.33 for Vasteras SK FK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 8W 5D 2L from 15 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasteras SK FK's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.67 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK in 67%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 11W 11D 8L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 10W 10D 10L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.93 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 3-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Hammarby FF
0
Draws
1
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 3 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 2, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Hammarby FF, 60% for Vasteras SK FK — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hammarby FF) and 47% (Vasteras SK FK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Hammarby FF's games and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hammarby FF's matches and 47% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Hammarby FF and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out Vasteras SK FK 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.71 xG and Vasteras SK FK 0.76 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.28 / defence 0.84 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.67 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 60% | Draw 24% | Vasteras SK FK 16%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 50%, Vasteras SK FK 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.47 PPG, Vasteras SK FK 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.