Hammarby FF 0-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Mjallby AIF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 1.60 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Hammarby FF, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 53% versus Mjallby AIF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Mjallby AIF 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.65 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.122 / defence 0.876 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.873 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.085. Data: 36 Hammarby FF games / 36 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 56% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 18%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Mjallby AIF 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 60% | Mjallby AIF 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 56% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Hammarby FF 1.65 / Mjallby AIF 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.122 / def 0.876 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.873 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Mjallby AIF xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 9 May 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF 0 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 56% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Hammarby FF 2W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
56%
1.77
25%
3.95
18%
5.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.48
0.83
Mjallby AIF xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.49
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
3%
28.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.83 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF come into this having played 60 games, going 31W 16D 13L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.35 PPG from 60 outings (20W 21D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hammarby FF's home form reads 20W 8D 2L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (10W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded. Hammarby FF's scoring rate against Mjallby AIF's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Mjallby AIF in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 31W 16D 13L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.27 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Hammarby FF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 3-0 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, Mjallby AIF 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hammarby FF) and 30% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 43%; Mjallby AIF in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 33% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 30% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hammarby FF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Hammarby FF and Mjallby AIF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.65 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.83 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 56% | Draw 25% | Mjallby AIF 18%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, Mjallby AIF 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.