Hammarby FF 1-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 23 as Hammarby FF welcome Djurgardens IF to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 October 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF at Tele2 Arena this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Djurgardens IF stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.50 (Djurgardens IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF trading profile (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 62% versus Djurgardens IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hammarby FF 71% | Djurgardens IF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.30 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.067 / defence 1.175 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.830 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.358. Data: 22 Hammarby FF games / 21 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 34% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 35%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Djurgardens IF 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 50% | Djurgardens IF 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Oct 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 34% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Hammarby FF 1.30 / Djurgardens IF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.067 / def 1.175 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.830 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Djurgardens IF xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 4 October 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF 1 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 34% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.07) and Djurgardens IF's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
34%
2.95
31%
3.24
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.62
1.32
Djurgardens IF xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
10%
10.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.32 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 7W 8D 6L record — D-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF's form line: 9W 5D 7L from 21 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.38 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (2W 6D 1L).
On the road, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 1D 4L from 9 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.48 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 7W 8D 6L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 9W 5D 7L in their last 21 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.33 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Djurgardens IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hammarby FF
4
Draws
2
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 4, Djurgardens IF have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 56%, Djurgardens IF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hammarby FF) and 56% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 44% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 56% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Hammarby FF and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.30 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.07 / defence 1.18 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.10, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 34% | Draw 31% | Djurgardens IF 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 71%, Djurgardens IF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.38 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.