Halmstad 0-0 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Halmstad host Hammarby FF at Örjans Vall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Halmstad have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Halmstad's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Örjans Vall this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Hammarby FF away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Halmstad's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Halmstad have won 0, Hammarby FF 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Halmstad trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 7% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Hammarby FF trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 46% versus Hammarby FF 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Halmstad 18% | Hammarby FF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 0.85 xG and Hammarby FF 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.577 / defence 0.856 | Hammarby FF attack 1.083 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.172. Halmstad's attack strength of 0.577 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Halmstad games / 58 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Halmstad 28% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Hammarby FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Halmstad 50% | Hammarby FF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 28% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Halmstad 0.85 / Hammarby FF 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.577 / def 0.856 | Hammarby FF attack 1.083 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Hammarby FF xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Halmstad vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Halmstad 0 - 0 Hammarby FF.
Where is Halmstad vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Hammarby FF part of?
Halmstad vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 28% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Halmstad and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Hammarby FF?
Record (1 meetings): Halmstad 0W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 0W.
What form are Halmstad and Hammarby FF in?
Halmstad (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Halmstad's attack rating (0.58) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Halmstad's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
28%
3.54
31%
3.21
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Halmstad xG
Total xG
1.94
1.09
Hammarby FF xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
10%
10.50
17%
5.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.4 | 15.7 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.09 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Halmstad have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 6W 12D 10L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Hammarby FF's form line: 14W 7D 7L from 28 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Halmstad.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Halmstad have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (3W 9D 2L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 4D 6L from 14 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
The Goals Picture
Halmstad are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.75 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 64%.
Last 28 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Current Season
Hammarby FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 6W 12D 10L in their last 28 games (1.07 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 14W 7D 7L in their last 28 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Hammarby FF away?
Halmstad's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.29 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Halmstad and Hammarby FF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Halmstad's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Halmstad
5
Draws
2
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Hammarby FF?
From 9 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Hammarby FF 1-1 Halmstad.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Halmstad see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 50%, Hammarby FF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 7% for Halmstad and 50% for Hammarby FF.
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Halmstad's games and 64% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Halmstad vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 7% of Halmstad's recent games and 50% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Halmstad's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 29, as Halmstad and Hammarby FF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 0.85 xG and Hammarby FF 1.09 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Halmstad fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Hammarby FF landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.58 / defence 0.86 against Hammarby FF attack 1.08 / defence 0.97, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 28% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 41%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 18%, Hammarby FF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.