GIF Sundsvall 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 July 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's home record at NP3 Arena: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for GIF Sundsvall, 0.80 for Varbergs BoIS FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: GIF Sundsvall 0W, Varbergs BoIS FC 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 56% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 44% | Varbergs BoIS FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.83 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.986 / defence 1.769 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.816 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.102. Varbergs BoIS FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 GIF Sundsvall games / 45 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.42 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Varbergs BoIS FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.83 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.986 / def 1.769 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.816 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 43% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 33% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | Varbergs BoIS FC 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (0.82x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.77x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
43%
2.30
23%
4.30
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.42
1.59
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
16%
6.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
5%
18.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.59 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, GIF Sundsvall have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 18W 9D 18L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 13W 13D 19L from 45 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.16 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, GIF Sundsvall have posted 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (12W 3D 7L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.02 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 18L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 13W 13D 19L in their last 45 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.77 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.95 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Varbergs BoIS FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 3-0 on 16 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 7 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 1-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (GIF Sundsvall) and 64% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 64% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 64% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat GIF Sundsvall 1-3 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.83 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.59 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.99 / defence 1.77 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.27, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 33%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Varbergs BoIS FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 44%, Varbergs BoIS FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.40 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.