GIF Sundsvall 1-5 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hammarby FF make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hammarby FF have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hammarby FF's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.22 xG and Hammarby FF 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Hammarby FF attack 0.999 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.243. Data: 1 GIF Sundsvall games / 31 Hammarby FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 42%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.22 / Hammarby FF 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.865 / def 1.150 | Hammarby FF attack 0.999 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Hammarby FF xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 5 Hammarby FF.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 32% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Hammarby FF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Hammarby FF away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.86) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hammarby FF's attack (1.00x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
32%
3.11
26%
3.85
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.65
1.43
Hammarby FF xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
8%
12.98
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.43 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
Hammarby FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
GIF Sundsvall
0
Draws
2
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Hammarby FF?
From 2 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2022, when Hammarby FF 3-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 1-5 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat GIF Sundsvall 1-5 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.22 xG and Hammarby FF 1.43 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.43 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Hammarby FF attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 32% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 42%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.