Gais 2-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gais face Sirius.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gais and Sirius meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Gais (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gais at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gais are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Sirius's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Sirius away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Gais against 1.30 for Sirius. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Gais, 1 for Sirius and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 13 Jul 2024, ended Gais 1–3 Sirius — a Sirius win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sirius half-time and goal-timing data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 42% versus Sirius 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 54% | Sirius 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.36 xG and Sirius 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.898 / defence 0.738 | Sirius attack 1.055 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.233. Gais have a tight defence (rating 0.738), which is pulling Sirius's projected output down. Data: built from Gais's last 29 games and Sirius's last 59.
Result probabilities: Gais 46% | Draw 28% | Sirius 26%. Fair-value odds: Gais 2.19 | Draw 3.57 | Sirius 3.81. Gais hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gais 30% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 30 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 46% | Draw 28% | Sirius 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Gais 1.36 / Sirius 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.898 / def 0.738 | Sirius attack 1.055 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Gais (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Sirius xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs Sirius FAQs
What time does Gais vs Sirius kick off?
Gais vs Sirius kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Sirius?
Gais 2 - 1 Sirius.
Where is Gais vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Sirius part of?
Gais vs Sirius is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 30) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 46% chance of winning, Sirius a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Gais and Sirius will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Gais vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Gais's attack at 0.90x the league average against Sirius's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.05x) against Gais's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 29 games and Sirius's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.57
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Gais xG
Total xG
2.32
0.96
Sirius xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
7%
14.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs Sirius Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Gais and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Gais and 0.96 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gais come into this having played 59 games, going 30W 12D 17L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Sirius sit at 1.41 PPG from 59 outings (24W 11D 24L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Gais against 1.41 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Gais's home form reads 17W 6D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Sirius have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 29 away games (11W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.64 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
Gais (Home) vs Sirius (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Gais vs Sirius Form FAQs
What form are Gais and Sirius in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 30W 12D 17L in their last 59 games (1.73 PPG), while Sirius have gone 24W 11D 24L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Sirius away?
Gais's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.97 PPG; Sirius away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Gais or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sirius in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Gais and Sirius, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Sirius have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won Sirius 3-0 Gais on 14 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gais
0
Draws
4
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs Sirius H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Sirius?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 2, Sirius have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Sirius last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Gais 0-1 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 38%, Sirius 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Gais) and 55% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 31% of games; Sirius in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gais vs Sirius Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gais and Sirius matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Gais's recent matches and 55% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gais and Sirius matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Gais's recent games and 55% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Sirius matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Gais's recent matches and 66% of Sirius's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gais edge out Sirius 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Sirius 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.36 xG and Sirius 0.96 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.90 / defence 0.74 against Sirius attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 46% | Draw 28% | Sirius 26%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 54%, Sirius 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.73 PPG, Sirius 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.