Falkenbergs FF 1-3 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 22 as Falkenbergs FF welcome Hammarby FF to Falcon Alkoholfri Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 September 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Falkenbergs FF — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Falkenbergs FF's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Falkenbergs FF, 0 for Hammarby FF and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2020, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Falkenbergs FF trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Falkenbergs FF 67% and Hammarby FF 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Falkenbergs FF 52% | Hammarby FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Falkenbergs FF 1.25 xG and Hammarby FF 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.797 / defence 1.228 | Hammarby FF attack 0.878 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.390. Falkenbergs FF's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hammarby FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Falkenbergs FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Falkenbergs FF games / 21 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 30% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 41%. Fair-value odds: Falkenbergs FF 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Hammarby FF 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Falkenbergs FF 50% | Hammarby FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Falcon Alkoholfri Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Sep 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Falkenbergs FF 30% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Falkenbergs FF 1.25 / Hammarby FF 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Falkenbergs FF attack 0.797 / def 1.228 | Hammarby FF attack 0.878 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Falkenbergs FF xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Hammarby FF xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 27 September 2020 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What was the final score in Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF?
Falkenbergs FF 1 - 3 Hammarby FF.
Where is Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena.
What competition is Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Falkenbergs FF a 30% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Falkenbergs FF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Hammarby FF?
Record (1 meetings): Falkenbergs FF 0W | Draws 1 | Hammarby FF 0W.
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Hammarby FF in?
Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Falkenbergs FF's attack at 0.80x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Falkenbergs FF's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
30%
3.39
30%
3.37
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Falkenbergs FF xG
Total xG
2.75
1.50
Hammarby FF xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
7%
15.18
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Falkenbergs FF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Falkenbergs FF and 1.50 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Falkenbergs FF have picked up 0.76 PPG on a 3W 7D 11L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 7W 8D 6L from 21 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Falkenbergs FF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Falkenbergs FF have posted 0.70 PPG from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Falkenbergs FF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.43 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Falkenbergs FF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Falkenbergs FF have gone 3W 7D 11L in their last 21 games (0.76 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 7W 8D 6L in their last 21 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Falkenbergs FF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Falkenbergs FF at home: 0.70 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 September 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Falkenbergs FF
1
Draws
1
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Falkenbergs FF and Hammarby FF?
From 2 meetings on record, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, Hammarby FF have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Falkenbergs FF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2020, when Falkenbergs FF 1-3 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Falkenbergs FF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Falkenbergs FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Falkenbergs FF 50%, Hammarby FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 40% for Falkenbergs FF and 90% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Falkenbergs FF have failed to score in 40% of games; Hammarby FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Falkenbergs FF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Falkenbergs FF play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Falkenbergs FF's games and 60% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Falkenbergs FF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 40% of Falkenbergs FF's matches and 90% of Hammarby FF's.
Do Falkenbergs FF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Falkenbergs FF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Falkenbergs FF 1-3 at Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Falkenbergs FF 1.25 xG and Hammarby FF 1.50 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.50 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Falkenbergs FF attack 0.80 / defence 1.23 against Hammarby FF attack 0.88 / defence 1.41, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Falkenbergs FF 30% | Draw 30% | Hammarby FF 41%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Falkenbergs FF 52%, Hammarby FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.76. That form edge translated into the three points. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.